Managing a crisis requires transparent and reliable key risk indicators. Since the beginning of the Covid 19 pandemic, I am working on modeling the reproduction number in Germany as part of risk warning systems. So I developed an analytical approach for (I hope so) sound and reliable estimates. The resulting approach takes into account some peculiarities of Germany's health and reporting system.
On this page you will find the current estimations of the reproduction number.
Since the financial market crisis, there have been many developments in risk measurement, quantification and management. I believe that this experience with practical challenges, proven solutions and qualitative standards can be very useful in dealing with the pandemic risk.
The reason why these experiences are transferable is simple:
Both market risks and infection risks are driven by human behavior.
I am working as a risk management consultant and regulatory law advisor in Germany for more than 15 years. My customers mainly include small and medium-sized banks. I give advise to questions about risk assessment and profiling, capital and asset allocation, market price risks, counterparty risks, non-financial risks as well as models for risk measurement and adequacy.
If you have any quetstions, do not hesitate to contact me via mail.